Don't Expect Congress to Pass Sweeping AI Legislation This Year

My convo with Inside AI Policy

Over at Inside AI Policy, I talk with Charlie Mitchell about the prospects for comprehensive and piecemeal federal legislation on AI governance through the end of the year. (Full article here.)

A few highlights:

“Polymarket [still] shows an 8% chance of the US enacting an AI safety bill by December 31st, 2025,” meaning a legislative breakthrough is unlikely during the current Congress. “That is right where I’d put my own subjective estimate…”

Kalshi is also not so optimistic, and Metaculus gives it a mere 1% chance.

So, what can we reasonably expect from the Hill?

If the U.S. can’t get comprehensive, pro-innovation, preemptive federal AI legislation done, my hope is that lawmakers can at least scuttle the costliest bills and focus on empowering agencies like the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the NIST Center for AI Standards and Innovation and others to execute the AI Action Plan and promote public-private cooperation to protect Americans from malign foreign influence…

Alas, to quote the poet Boris, “Them’s the breaks.”